Page 191 - ЭКСПЕРТНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ

PARAGRAPH № 9. THE USE OF THE DOUBLE-LEVEL
SCENARIO METHOD WHEN WORKING-OUT
A PROGNOSIS OF UNEMPLOYMENT
IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION FOR 1994

In 1993—1994 the Scientific Centre Applied Prognostics» (SCAP)
according to the order of Federal Placement Service (FPS) of Russian
Federation (RF) in accordance with the Contract № M -30/93 between
FPS RF and SCAP (Contractor) signed on 01.03.93, worked-out the
prognosis of the unemployment level in RF in 1994. The obtained results
were presented in the report under the Contract. Two blocks from the re­
port compiled under the guidance Yu. V. Sidelnikov were included into
this material and supplemented with an aposteriori analysis of the prog­
nostication results.

1. Unemployment in RF as an object o fprognosis.
Unemployment prognosis development in RF is related to a vast
class of problems in which the situations characterised by a great number
of acting factors and a partial uncertainty of initial data are analysed. The
prognosis of such situations is embarrassed. The importance of the quali­
tative prognoses of unemployment is evident at the present moment of
the development of Russia.
One of the reasons for this is the fact, that employment of the popu­
lation relates to the economic categories closely connected with any fluc­
tuations of the economic environment; it is a peculiar «barometer» of the
state of the economy. During a transition to market reforms the number
of the employed in Russia is constantly decreasing, although not to the
same extent as the gross domestic product (GDP).
Every time when the economic crisis occurs in any country the
«mercury column» of unemployment jumps up immediately. As a rule it
is accompanied with a drop of employment. A reduction of employment
and the growth of unemployment is the price which the society is paying
for a future improvement.
At present the character and meaning of the employment in Russia
are changing. It has become voluntary, acquired such new features as
«profitableness — nonprofitableness» and, what is the main, it became
unstable.