Page 195 - ЭКСПЕРТНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ

• secondly, analysing, to use those of them which would exert suffi­
cient influence on the formation of employment in 1994.

In the first stage the expert —the Doctor of Economy I.V. Boush-
marin [12] suggested grouping the socio-economic factors exerting in­
fluence on the labour market in the following way:

1. Factors exerting influence on the demand.
2. Factors regulating (keeping balance) the demand for a new la­
bour force.
3. Factors exerting influence on the supply.
4. Factors alleviating an acuteness of an excessive supply of labour
force in the labour market of RF.
Each of the factors included into these groups should be appraised
from the point of view of:
• its influence upon employment;
• time limits of a display of its probable influence.
In addition, when working out the prognosis for 1994, we consid­
ered the following socio-economic factors defining the movement of the
manpower in the labour market.
1. The factors restraining the demand for the manpower on the
part of the economy.
The demand for the manpower in Russian economy in the nearest
six months will be applied the brake with the influence of the following
factors:
1.1. A prevalent trend towards an absolute production reduction in
the state monopolistic economy.
1.2. A low efficiency level of the use of the manpower already en­
gaged in the economy the number of which is noticeably exceeds a really
existing demand for it.
1.3. A lack of any sufficient employment expansion in the non-state
sectors of the economy.
1.4. The state policy practical absence of encouraging small, medi­
um and family business in the sphere of goods and services production
(and through this a creation of new working places).
1.5. A high level of prices for energy carriers and raw-materials
which restrain the production in numerous enterprises.