Page 193 - ЭКСПЕРТНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ

All this prompts to employment dynamics consideration and factors
defining it in order to study the mechanism of its formation and to learn
how to forecast it.

The task for the prognosis was given by the leaders of FPS and its
form was defined in the basic document used by the experts, that is by
the form compiled by FPS and described in the concluding part of the
paragraph.

All the entirety of parameters set by the FPS form may be conven­
tionally divided into two sub-multitudes.

Firstly, those ones for which there are quite reliable statistical data
for a former period and it is possible to use various statistical methods for
obtaining prognostic values.

And, secondly, such parameters for which there is no reliable statis­
tics and it is possible to use just experts and elements of the expert fore­
casting technology. We have included just a description of the expert ap­
proach into this material. Furthermore, the FPS form contains an orient­
ing information for experts, and the experts submit their appraisals in it
too. The final results of the prognostication should be submitted in the
same form.

The customer has required that the information should be in a nu­
merical form. For the elaboration of the prognosis it was suggested to use
a reduced version of the expert technology in the form of a double-level
scenario. We believed that the scenarios on employment and unemploy­
ment which will be obtained from the experts will be naturally dependent
on the socio-economic background.

And therefore, it is necessary to consider basic socio-economic sce­
narios and only within their frameworks to compile the scenarios on em­
ployment and unemployment. For compiling such scenarios we have to
rely on the discovered factors which exert influence on employment and
unemployment in RF and on the structure of basic determinants, defin­
ing the level of employment and unemployment in RF.

In 1993 we considered that for the expert prognosis elaboration of
parameters given in the FPS form for the next year it was necessary:

• firstly, to reveal as many as possible various factors exerting influ­
ence on employment and unemployment in RF;