Page 129 - ЭКСПЕРТНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ

PARAGRAPH № 6. EXPERT APPRAISALS OF THE SECOND TYPE

Now let’s pass on to a discussion of the simplest types of the expert
appraisals of the second kind described in the literature.

Appraisals of the type (1.1).
The example of the appraisals of the type (1.1) is a weather forecast
in the Russia. For example, «in a number of regions of the West Siberia a
transitory warming is possible in the end of April». In this case a degree
of a certitude is defined by an identificator «possible», and the expert ap­
praisal of the first kind (a final judgement) was expressed by the use of
the words «transitory warming».
Appraisals of the type (1.7).
In a number of the works of the sociologists the expert appraisals of
the type (1.7) are discussed. They are the works with the tests of a legi­
bility [137,169] and in the experiments for an identification of signals
[160]. In these experiments it is required from the expert, although in
this context it is better to speak of the examinee, that in addition to the
basic answer expressed in the form of a final opinion he should every time
indicate a degree of his certitude in it. The numbers were the form of the
expert appraisals in which the examinee estimated his certitude.
In the experimental work of Watson and other authors the examinee
fixed a movable sighting device fixed on the ruler according to his own
sensation of the confidence degree, and therefore the simplest mechani­
cal device was used in the appraisal experiment [189].
Appraisals of the type (1.9).
The weather forecast is an example of the appraisals of the type
(1.9) if confidence is given as a probability of one or another event ex­
pressed in a percentage. In spite of complicated mathematical models
and dozens of thousands of initial data to be input into computers a
short-term weather forecast satisfies us not always. This is partially relat­
ed to the fact that, unfortunately, for the time being the numerical meth­
ods do not ensure a rather exact calculation of the development of the
processes in the lowest one of the six layers of the atmosphere. The laws
of the development of this layer are by far more complicated than those of
the upper layers. And just here an interference of the expert-prognosist is
required.