Page 125 - ЭКСПЕРТНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ

A good review of the research works in which people were considered
to be «intuitive statisticians» was given by Peterson and Beach [166].

The availability of the directly contradictory results concerning an
exactness and reliability of appraisals of the subjective probabilities rather
confirms the concept of a relativity of the best type of an expert appraisal
and a necessity to select the best type of the expert appraisal every time.

As a measure of the confidence of a man in some possible occurring
events, subjective probability may be formally submitted in various ways:
a distribution of probabilities on a great number of events, a binary ratio
on a great number of events, a incompletely given distribution of proba­
bilities or a partial binary relation and other methods [62].

Quantitative and qualitative subjective probability is singled out de­
pending upon the form of a presentation.

Quantitative subjective probability is a probability measure for a
great number of events while meeting the requirements of the same sys­
tem of axioms as an objective probability [38]. Therefore, from a formal
point of view, the quantitative subjective probability differs in no way from
the objective probability. The difference is the sense that is put into these
notions. Practically, a formation of quantitative subjective probability re­
quires an indication of numerical values of the probability for a number of
events by the expert.

However, it is known that such a quantitative information is very
complicated for man and unreliable in a number of cases [108].

The information consisting of answers to the questions on a compa­
rable probability (possibility) of two events is considerably more simple
and therefore more trustworthy. In connection with this a non-numerical
formalization of the subjective probability based upon the use of binary
ratios of the superiority (>) and equality (~) of events according to a
probability are of greater practical interest. So, formalized subjective
probability has acquired the name of the qualitative one (comparative al­
so [144,188]).