Page 131 - ЭКСПЕРТНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ

The experts submit their appraisals either of the type (1.1) as in
Russia or (1.9) as in the USA and Canada. If, for example, the expert is
asked: «What will the weather be exactly in a week?» —then the expert
may answer in such a way: «Evidently, exactly in a week there would be a
warm day», that is an appraisal of the type (1.1), or «With the 80 per
cent confidence I think that it will be a warm day», that is an appraisal of
the type (1.9). Generally speaking, the verbal answer is more reliable
while taking into account, firstly, that the warm day is a non-exact notion
and, secondly, for the time being we understand the dynamics of the
weather changing not quite well. On the other hand, the second answer
is more informative.

The idea of the weighted weather forecasts was considered by Cooc
even in 1906 and was gradually developed into a probability prognostica­
tion concept which was seldom used in the beginning, but has already
became a generally used in such countries as the USA, Canada [138].

According to the opinion of Sheridan and Ferrell definition of the
accuracy of forecasts expressed in such a form [105] is one of the most
important but puzzling problem. So, for example, if every day to forecast
a clear weather in Tucson (Arizona) then such a prognosis will be exact in
86 per cent of cases. The forecast of the clear weather in 86 per cent of
cases corresponds to the average data and in this sense is absolutely cor­
rect. But certainly it does not indicate a high exactness of the expert
prognosis of the specialist.

An attempt to avoid this difficulty was undertaken in the work of
Merphi and Winkler [164] when both the ability of a meteorologist to dis­
cern real conditions and a correspondence between a probability men­
tioned in the prognosis and an observed frequency of precipitation were
taken into account when defining the quality of the weather forecasts.

Another example of the appraisals of the type (1.9) is using of logi­
cal (conditional) links with the indication of a probability of their realiza­
tion contained in the data base of the MICIN expert system [141].

Appraisals of the type (2.9).
The appraisals of the type (2.9) are discussed, for example, in the
work [92]. «Let’s imagine, —Yu. Tyurin writes, — that a probability is
distributed in a probable great number of classifications of a given final
multitude of objects».