Page 127 - ЭКСПЕРТНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ

The problem of the possibility of forming a qualitative probability
that is coordinated with the qantitative one in some sense is traditionally
considered to be the basic question related to the concept of qualitative
probability.

This fact became reflection of the fact just the quantitative probabil­
ity [35] has been used for solving practical problems up to the recent
times, but the qualitative probability engendered only a theoretical inter­
est.

However, in the decision-making theory, there appeared special
procedures meant for an analysis of the qualitative information. In con­
nection with this, the notion of qualitative probability has acquired an in­
dependent practical meaning.

The second approach toward the definition of the confidence degree
is based upon normalized and non-normalized eroded numbers intro­
duced by P.B. Shoshin [111]. The practical use of eroded numbers in ex­
pert appraisals as a certain presentation of subjective appraisals is expe­
dient even now according to P.B. Shoshin's opinion.

There also exist other approaches — through the use of illegible
multitudes and finite casual multitudes. In expert appraisals illegible
multitudes were discussed in the works of M. Pinas [167], but casual
multitudes - byA.I. Orlov[65].

All of these approaches are near and related to illegible multitudes
theory. At the present time the method of the illegible multitudes theory
is rather well developed and described in Russian in the works of L.A.
Zade [32], L.A. Gousev and I.M. Smirnov [25], A.I. Orlov [65] and oth­
ers. Unfortunately, the number of theoretical works is incomparably
greater than the number of quite prominent and convincing applied
works on this subject.