Page 67 - ЭКСПЕРТНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ

PROBLEMS OF THE STAGE:
L To describe the prognostication object with such a degree of de­
tail which is necessary for working up the prognosis [DMP].
2. To analyze the object of prognostication and work up its classifi­
cation if it’s necessary [Prognosist, Expert],
3. To select the system components possessing «system-defining»
properties and, therefore, to determine finally:
• the kind(s) of expert appraisals which will be used. (It is necessary
that the form of the prognosis would satisfy DMP and be perceptible by
experts.) [Prognosist];
• an algorithmic operation which allows to get expert appraisals of
the selected type (Prognosist];
• the method or procedure which allows to get a new knowledge
from experts [Prognosist];
• the method of selecting experts into a group and the rules of their
withdrawal from its staff [Prognosist];
• the method of forming the expert group(s) [Prognosist];
• the method of interrogating experts [Prognosist];
• the principles on which will be an expertise based [Prognosist].
NOTES:
1. If the interrogation makes a provision for a questionnaire then the
Prognosist should think over carefully both the elaboration questions for
the questionnaire and its structure.
2. Providing according to appraisals of Prognosist the next stage
would be rather a long one then the Organizer has to think over and en­
sure the conditions for the activity of all the expertise participants.

STAGE 7. INTERROGATION OF EXPERTS.
SUBJECTS: Organizer, Prognosist.
GOAL OF THE STAGE —to interrogate of experts.
DESCRIPTION OF THE STAGE:
1. To conduct a preliminary work of Organizer with experts includ­
ing a provision of experts with the information and to orient them on a
system analysis of the object of prognostication. (After finishing this part
of the stage the expert should have a certain orientation in relation to the
problem set and to their subsequent activity [Organizer].)