Page 65 - ЭКСПЕРТНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ

2. Without a well-adjusted organization of the information support
it is difficult to expect the obtaining of high-quality prognoses on a per­
manent basis.

3. The information support should correspond to a methodical, pro­
gram and organization support of the expert prognostication.

4. The system-oriented principle is the main methodological condi­
tion for ensuring an efficient information support. Just in a such way V.S.
Remisov approaches to the information support in his work [77]: «The in­
formation system should possibly form a complete information image —
an information model of the object».

5. It is extremely difficult to form an adequate information image of
the object because of the following reasons:

• the object may be quite complicated;
• when forming an information image distortions are possible which
are introduced with the very process of prognostication;
• a lack of the information including that one related to its conceal­
ment because of the regime and financial restrictions.

STAGE 6. FINAL PROGNOSTIC TASK.
SUBJECTS: Customer, DMP, Organizer, Prognosist, Expert.
GOAL OF THE STAGE —to formulate a prognostication task.
DESCRIPTION OF THE STAGE:
On this stage Customer, DMP, Organizer, Prognosist and also, if
it’s necessary, a preliminarily selected Expert are formulating finally a
prognostication task which may be legalized as a «technical prognostic
task».
While taking the information obtained on the fourth and fifth stages
into account, Prognosist solves the problems of this stage and, therefore,
transforms six system-forming elements of the expert prognostication
technology into its system-composing elements.