Page 71 - ЭКСПЕРТНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ

3. To submit the formed generalized conclusion of experts to DMP
in a structurized form with a compulsory formulation of conclusions [Or­
ganizer, Prognosist, Expert]. For a realization of the latter problem it is
necessary to solve a totality of sub-problems mentioned below in the last
part of this stage.

DESCRIPTION OF THE STAGE:
The generalized conclusion of experts must be formed within the
framework of this stage through processing of all expert conclusions and
analysis.
The first level of the stage. First of all, the processing of both quan­
titative and qualitative results of the interrogation. In this case both a dis­
crete and a statistical approaches are used.
There are comparatively few works where the problems of the pro­
cessing and analysis of a single expert appraisal were mentioned. In a
majority of works there is an analysis and processing of the information
obtained from a group of experts.
More often the procedure of the statistical processing of expert data
includes three sub-problems, how this was done in [31]:
• an analysis of every expert’s appraisals;
• a calculation of the objects group appraisals;
• an estimation of the group appraisals trustworthiness.
The first sub-task - a check-up of a formal correctness of indicating
appraisals by experts. For example, in case when an expert gives his ap­
praisal in a form of a grouping it is necessary to check that sub­
multitudes into which a multitude is being divided with a classification
method do have blank intersections.
In case when experts give appraisals obtained with the multiple
comparisons method or with the ranging it is necessary to check up a
correctness of the binding ranges calculating.
A determination of the group appraisal is one of the problems of the
statistical processing.
In that case when the opinions of experts differ, and this fact hap­
pens almost always, it is necessary to introduce such a concept as «aver­
aged» opinion in one or another way and to solve the second sub­
problem. A selection of means’ types depends on the kind of expert ap­
praisal and, consequently, on the scale in which an appraisal is given.