Page 63 - ЭКСПЕРТНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ

PROBLEMS OF THE STAGE:
L To work up the plan of the necessary information search which
includes the sources of the necessary knowledge [Organizer, Customer].
2. To bring a supposed duration of the stage into correlation with
the period of working up the prognosis as a whole. To make a correction if
necessary [Organizer, Customer].
3. To work up the structure of the expert prognostication infor­
mation support. This structure should reflect a specificity of the sphere to
which the prognostication object belongs [Organizer, Customer].
4. To form an information fund including prognoses on the similar
subjects. To create new and (or) to use existing data bases and knowl-
edgement in computers [Organizer, Prognosist].
5. To provide an entry into the world information space on the latest
information technology basis [Organizer, Customer].
6. To accomplish an analysis of the collected information [Organizer],
7. To develop the scheme of the information flow processing which
would ensure a technical and technological base for solving the raised
prognostic problems [Organizer, Prognosist].
8. To develop an expert «support system» including not only an in­
tegrated bank of the prognostic information, but also a dialogue system
for training an expert in working with procedures and methods. A such
system should help to use various kinds of expert appraisals in a correct
way, to contain a description of the most common methodical delusions
and typical difficulties of the expert prognostication [Organizer, Progno­
sist].
9. To create an adequate information image of the object of prog­
nostication [Organizer, Prognosist],
NOTES:
L The fifth stage is one of the most important ones. But unfortu­
nately it is often neglected. At the same time there is no doubt that the
quality of a prognosis depends directly on the fact to what extent the in­
formation on the object being discussed and its external relations are di­
verse, reliable, complete and operative, and also to what extent it is ac­
cessible to the expert.