Page 69 - ЭКСПЕРТНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ

2. To interrogate of experts on the basis of the selected method or
procedure [Prognosist].

PROBLEMS OF THE STAGE:
1. To prepare a summary material and to edit the totality of the ex­
pert conclusions [Prognosist],
2. To obtain expert appraisals of a certain kind in an obvious way or
on the basis of a chosen algorithmic operation [Prognosist],
3. By means of interrogating experts, to reveal parameters defining
a totality of equivalence classes of the error index types for an aposteriori
estimation of the prognosis accuracy [Prognosist] [79].
NOTES:
1. Unfortunately, the interrogation of experts as a certain stage of
their work is often perceived by DMP as either a certain «zero» cycle or a
final cycle of the investigation. It is necessary to note that this is one of
the most serious delusions of DMP.
2. Within the frameworks of this stage it is necessary to ensure an
independence of the experts from other expertise subjects on the follow­
ing basis of:
• a corresponding legal support (a consolidation of rights, duties
and responsibility of the subjects of the expertise);
• an elaboration of the rules of a selection and withdrawal of sub­
jects from the staff of expert councils;
• a formation of mechanism which neutralize and/or compensate
factors capable of exerting an one-sided influence upon the opinions of
experts.
A diversification of the sphere of a scientific and methodical support
of expertise and its financing individuality deprivation are necessary for a
realization of the independence principle.

STAGE 8. PROCESSING OF THE EXPERT INFORMATION, ITS
ANALYSIS AND PRESENTATION FOR DMP.

SUBJECTS: Organizer, Prognosist, Expert.
GOALS AND PROBLEMS OF THE STAGE (The goals should be
realized in the shown sequence):
1. To process the expert appraisals [Prognosist],
2. To analyze and comment them [Prognosist, Expert],